There is no absolute “truth”.

Instead of truth, we have models. Models help us make predictions. Some models are better than others. Some work better in different situations. There is no comprehensive model. There can be no perfect model, because it would not fit in our heads. Every model is a simplification.

We also have “facts”—which is to say, observations. We can’t be certain about events, anymore than we can be certain about the rules which govern them. But we can get close, if we use math, and very precise instruments.

Not everything in life is easy to describe with math. For example, human thought and behaviour. So it’s hard—maybe impossible—to be rigourous. Consequently, most models of human behaviour are only marginally useful. You cannot predict what people will say or do with much accuracy, though you can assign probabilities. There are too many input variables to track, and we often cannot tell which are most significant. But we try to make do. Usually by explaining after-the-fact. Which is a complete waste of time, but all too common.

If you can reduce the number of variables, prediction of individual behaviour can become more reliable. Otherwise, you have to restrict your predictions to populations. Thus, we have statistics.

People don’t like being reduced to statistics. It is an affront to their sense of agency. At the same time, they have no problem reducing other people to statistics, or stereotypes. Humans are deeply hypocritical. It seems to be how we evolved.

We all want to know what will happen. We all have to take our pick from a variety of terrible models, to help us make predictions, most of which are either trivial (and of little use) or simply wrong. Most of us pretend this isn’t true. We pretend that the models—beliefs—that we adopt are perfect. We must invent a lot of excuses and rationalizations when they don’t work. It’s absurd.

Humans are absurd. This gives me a lot of distress. I try to be less absurd. I assume that I am usually failing. Most people seem oblivious to their own absurdity. Their desires, beliefs, and intutions are, to them, completely reasonable. Even when they lead them into disaster. Their models fail, but they don’t blame the models. They blame hidden forces.

People don’t want truth. They want a free pass. They want self-confidence, and the comfort of false certainty. This makes me feel very lonely and depressed. Not just because I don’t have those things, but because I have no one to commiserate with. If nearly everyone is filled with delusional certainty and self-assurance, and trusts that their absurd beliefs are the truth, then those few people who disbelieve will be isolated.

It is what it is.