Social issues are complicated and frustrating. On so many levels. But we should still try to understand them.

Is society getting worse? It depend on what we measure, on what timescale. Most metrics will follow a random walk; it will look erratic. Zoom out, and it will appear stable. Zoom out further, and it will look noisy again.

Many trends play out over long periods, sometimes decades. And they all affect one another. Which trends are the most impactful?

Society depends on the economy depends on the environment. And they all influence one another.

Much, if not most, of the trends that shape the world are not directly under anyone’s control. This fact makes people uncomfortable. Some even refuse to accept it. Someone must be responsible. When things good bad, there must be someone to blame. When they go well, someone must get credit.

It can be discouraging to remember that human behaviour is mostly a product of belief; belief is mostly a product of intuition; intuitions are a product of evolution; and evolution works at multiple levels; and it doesn’t care about outcomes, let alone individual welfare.

The facts of human existence are different than we expect. Many even deny those facts, because they contradict their feelings. As long as that is true, we cannot expect societies to behave rationally. If they appear to, it is probably a fluke; a correlation without causation. But most people don’t understand what that means, either.

What about those who have transcended their naive intuitions? They realize that their powers are limited. Perhaps, if they have social power, they can pull on various levers. But the consequences will not be predictable. In contrast, hubris convices the naive power players that they can bend the world to their will. They are exceptional. Then again, few care about the real consequences to the wider world. They are concerned about themselves.

Just because we have limits does not mean we are powerless. The challenge is to determine the extent of one’s power, and then to limit one’s goals to what is within that power. And maybe make a Hail Mary every once in a while, if there’s nothing to lose. Choosing to admit this fact is unpleasant. It places what feels like an unfair burden. Work extremely hard to achieve unimpressive results. We would rather believe that are capacity is equal to our will. A persistent fantasy.

What power do we have? When we assess the state of things, we must also include finding answers to this question. We shouldn’t assume. Even though most of us will.

Most of the most important work is done by everyday people, working every day, for little or no recognition, other than maybe a living wage or modest salary. Meanwhile, all the credit is taken by blowhards who do nothing but self-promote and make a mess.

Is there no justice? Well, there isn’t much. Mostly, there is simply random chance. The amount of justice may be a product of the number of people willing to commit to acting justly, even without much hope of due recognition. We may have to settle for doing our part, thanklessly. If enough people contribute, then the aggregate results should be an improvement.

On the other hand, maybe we could come up with a plan to give people the recognition they deserve, for rising about supersition and instinctive selfishness. Maybe that’s what’s been missing the last half century. But we have to stop wishing for a saviour. We have to save ourselves. We have to recognize ourselves.

We don’t need heroes, let alone superheroes. What will it take for us to realize that?

We all have levers we can pull. The powerful have the biggest levers. But the consequences of their pulling those big levers is never predictable. It would probably be better if we took those levers away from them. We should all be focussed on small adjustments of small levers. The alternative is that large numbers of people will have their lives thrown into chaos.

We probably need less chaos. But the big boys think that more chaos is better. When are we going to learn that they are wrong? Often, they don’t care either way. They believe they are immune. They are still wrong. It just takes longer for them to discover.